TheNextRight.com: The Kos-R2K Affair
In case you haven’t heard, the State of the Nation polls at the DailyKos run by a polling firm called Research 2000 have recently been found to be fraudulent by researchers. There’s no evidence that the DailyKos was in on the fraud. In fact, they’re suing R2K. Patrick Ruffini has some thoughts about what might come out during the lawsuit:
…it will be interesting to see what the coming lawsuit(s) reveal about the relationship between Daily Kos and R2K. R2K was around prior to Daily Kos, and my vague recollection is that there was nothing out of line about its polling prior to its Kos contract. I could be wrong, but their polls seemed to play it up the middle. When an R2K poll came out in a previous election year, I didn’t automatically assume a Democratic skew like I would a CBS/New York Times poll or a Newsweek poll. Yet the moment they signed up with Kos, all their results seemed to skew towards Obama and Congressional Democrats, starting with their 2008 Presidential tracking poll. Their 2010 polling was if anything worse, skewing several points toward Democratic Senate candidates, though their numbers in primariesseemed right, at least until the end when they disintegrated upon close contact with actual results.
At some point when I raised this previously, it was mentioned that R2K was simply assuming a turnout model closer to Obama 2008. If so, who would be pushing them to do that? R2K? Or Kos?
Did Markos tell R2K to produce fraudulent polls showing Democrats up? Clearly not. Could R2K have simply been too eager to please their client, producing skewed results and making stuff up to boot? That seems more likely.
The DailyKos is a major site, and you have to wonder if the knowledge that their polls are unreliable and possibly Democrat-slanting is going to send some quiet shock waves through the leftist community. These guys are already looking at a really bad election this year, and it’s possible that the polls they used to find rays of hope in the gathering storm were faked.