When it comes to matters of New Jersey politics, I always like to check out The Save Jersey Blog. I know the guys who run it, know their politics, and have found that they’re always able to cut through the chaff and collect the most relevant information on happenings within the Garden State. Plus, when they do original material, it is always great as well.
(Between you and me–and the several thousand folks who will read this today–I’ve been trying for a while now to woo the site’s founder over to America’s Right, but to no avail.)
Regardless, I was absolutely thrilled when I traveled over to the Save Jersey site today and found that Matt Rooney had highlighted a recent poll from Survey USA showing a distinct possibility that Garden State independents are flocking to Republican challenger Chris Christie one day ahead of the critical gubernatorial election tomorrow. I didn’t see it, but that’s the reason I love their Web site — they did.
They’re also reporting, just now, that Christie is up 1.2 percent according to the RealClearPolitics average. From the chart at the Save Jersey site, you can see that Christie leads by as many as six points according to Public Policy Polling and seven points according to Neighborhood Research, but is down by one and by five according to Stockton/Zogby and Democracy Corps, respectively.
While I try to stay out of New Jersey whenever possible–remember that I grew up on the Philadelphia side of the Delaware River–the last thing I want to see is an entire state forsaken. The people there are decent people, and given the state’s location and geography, it should be an absolute paradise for manufacturing, tourism and more. For too long, business and residents in that state alike have been strangled by astronomical taxes, a corrupt state government, and spendthrift leadership. It needs to stop.
Many deride the state as just being a stretch of highway between Philadelphia and the Jersey Shore. Being from this area, I’ve cracked a few jokes myself. Still, those that do such things–including myself–overlook the great schools (at least, the ones which don’t devote choral routines to praising our president), the gorgeous landscapes, and a God-fearing people who should be smart enough to understand the perils of big government and blind faith in a man who wants to actually lease the New Jersey Turnpike in order to pay for more social programs. The election is tomorrow. I hope those people do the right thing.
Anyway, here’s the Survey USA blurb highlighted by Matt at Save Jersey:
Is There Late Movement to Republican Christie in NJ? Or is the World Series Affecting Who Pollsters Reach? On Election Eve in New Jersey, with a New York City team and a Philadelphia team in the World Series, Republican Chris Christie may have slight late momentum in his bid to unseat incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WABC-TV. The candidates remain today within the theoretical margin of sampling error, as they have been in each of SurveyUSA’s 5 tracking NJ polls. At the wire, Christie 45%, Corzine 42%. Interviews were conducted Friday 10/30/09 through Sunday 11/01/09. On 2 of the 3 nights, much of NJ was home watching local teams play in the World Series. And: 1 of the 3 nights was Halloween, when families with children are home in uniquely large numbers. As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data.
Christie’s advantage among NJ independents grew from 12 points 4 weeks ago to 30 points today. SurveyUSA’s interactive tracking graph shows both Corzine and Independent Chris Daggett losing Independent votes to Christie. Those who have already voted favor Corzine. Corzine has votes banked. For Christie to be elected, he needs the voters who talk the Christie talk to walk the Christie walk on Election Day. The smaller the Election Day turnout, the more important Corzine’s banked votes are. The larger the Election Day turnout, the more likely the Republicans are to take Trenton. On the other hand: President Obama campaigned for Corzine on Sunday. Most interviews for this survey were completed before TV accounts of the Obama visit were shown, and 100% of interviews were completed before Monday’s newspapers were published with photos of Obama and Corzine.
I don’t know about you, but I recall what happened in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races in 1993, and hope to see it again. Now, I do indeed share the caution noted as essential by the Survey USA folks, but I cannot help but think that Garden Staters are finally starting to wake up and smell the stuff Jon Corzine has been shoveling their way for so long.
New Jersey is a state with limitless potential, and a populace which if properly informed would make wholly different decisions than the ones of which the consequences are plaguing them now. People like Matt Rooney and the others at Save Jersey are doing that state and this nation a service by providing the resource that they do. If Chris Christie prevails, it will be because of people like that. Let’s hope it happens.