I still think that Barack Obama is going to win Pennsylvania on Tuesday. I have yet to meet anyone who shares that opinion–or even doesn’t just laugh me off as being isolated to the southeastern corner of the state–but I’m sticking to it.
For the past three or four weeks, people haven’t heard a thing about Hillary Clinton which hasn’t been bookended by comments regarding how she should drop out of the race. Heck, when the candidate herself is stating–in her own speeches nonetheless–that she “isn’t going anywhere” or that she “isn’t going to drop out,” that’s not necessarily a good thing.
Plus, Obama’s reach spans much more than the African-American crowd here in Philadelphia. People tend to dismiss his appeal, tend to think that his support stops at the city limits. In truth, he looks like the candidate of choice out in the suburbs, across the Main Line and, from what I’ve heard, throughout the western part of Pennsylvania as well. Furthermore, his appeal among young, college-age voters combined with the smattering of liberal arts colleges which dot the middle part of the state might offset some of that inexplicable Democrat-hillbilly-for-Clinton vote.
He’s stronger than you imagine, people, and that strength is only buttressed by a voting public that eats up image at the expense of experience, substance and everything else. I’ve said for a while that it was going to be a matter of three, four or maybe five percentage points for a Clinton win — now (and for the better part of the last week) I have no problem setting myself up for embarassment by stating, out loud, that Obama will take the Keystone State.